Adjusted Balanced Portfolio with Recession Case (200D)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily trend check on the S&P 500 toggles between a defensive 24% stocks/76% Treasuries-TIPS mix and a balanced ~60/40 global stock–bond mix, with value/small-cap tilts and REITs.
Each day it checks where the S&P 500 sits versus its 200‑day average (a long‑term trend line). Based on that, it switches between two mixes:
- Defensive: about 24% stocks and 76% Treasuries/TIPS
- Balanced: about 60% stocks and 40% Treasuries/TIPS
Stocks span US large/small (value tilt), real estate, international developed & emerging. Bonds are short/intermediate US Treasuries plus inflation‑protected Treasuries.
Out-of-sample, this strategy beats SPY on risk-adjusted grounds: oos Sharpe 3.64 vs 2.68, Calmar 10.55, max drawdown 1.21% vs 5.07%, beta ~0.20. Lower volatility with diversified global exposure.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend filter (200-day), balanced 60/40, defensive switch, global equities, value tilt, small-cap tilt, treasuries, tips, real estate (reits)
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
Stocks
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
DFIV
Dimensional International Value ETF
Stocks
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF
Stocks
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
SPTI
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
Stocks