Adjusted Balanced Portfolio with Recession Case (200D)
Today’s Change (Feb 22, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A trend‑aware 60/40. If the S&P 500 falls below its 200‑day average, it shifts defensive to mostly Treasuries. Otherwise, it holds a diversified, value/small‑tilted global stock mix with a 40% Treasury/TIPS bond sleeve.
Each day it checks the S&P 500 against its 200‑day average (about a 10‑month trend). If the index is below that average, it goes defensive: ~24% in stocks (AVUS, IJR, VNQ, AVDV) and ~76% in U.S. Treasuries/TIPS (VGSH, SPTI, VTIP). If above, it holds a diversified 60/40 mix: ~60% global/value‑tilted stocks (AVUS, RPV, IJR, AVUV, VNQ, AVDE, DFIV, FNDC, AVDV, AVEM) and ~40% Treasuries/TIPS. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample, this trend-following 60/40 strategy offers higher risk-adjusted returns and far smaller drawdowns vs. the S&P 500: Sharpe 3.64 vs 2.68; Calmar 10.55; max drawdown 1.21% vs 5.07%; about 12.8% annualized.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 0.82 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.31% | 11.88% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.73 | |
| 20.14% | 4.23% | 1.93% | 4.41% | 0.56 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$12,014.23Regulatory Fees
$25.07
Total Slippage
$32.16
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend-following, 60/40, recession defense, treasuries/tips, value tilt, small-cap tilt, global equities, real estate
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
Stocks
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
DFIV
Dimensional International Value ETF
Stocks
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF
Stocks
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
SPTI
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
Stocks