Adjusted Balanced Portfolio with Recession Case (100D)
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
A rules‑based 60/40 that turns defensive when the S&P 500 looks weak. If below its 100‑day average, it moves to ~24% stocks/76% Treasuries+TIPS; otherwise it holds ~60% globally diversified, value‑tilted stocks and 40% bonds.
The strategy watches the S&P 500 against its 100‑day average (a simple trend yardstick).
- If the index looks weak (below the average), it shifts defensive: ~24% stocks, ~76% short/intermediate Treasuries and inflation‑protected Treasuries (TIPS).
- Otherwise it holds ~60% diversified stocks (value/small/international/real estate) and 40% bonds. Rebalanced daily.
Trend-based 60/40 strategy that defends during weakness. In out-of-sample testing it delivers higher risk-adjusted returns (oos Sharpe ~3.64 vs SPY ~2.68; Calmar ~10.55) with far smaller drawdowns (1.21% vs 5.07%) and a low beta (~0.20), boosting diversification vs the S&P 500.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend filter (100-day ma), 60/40, value/small tilt, global equities, treasuries, tips, real estate
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
Stocks
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
DFIV
Dimensional International Value ETF
Stocks
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF
Stocks
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
SPTI
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
Stocks