Adjusted Balanced Portfolio with Recession Case (100D)
Today’s Change (Feb 22, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules-based portfolio that flips between a defensive, bond-heavy mix and a diversified ~60/40 stock–bond mix based on whether the S&P 500 (via SPY) is above its 100‑day average, tilting toward value, small‑caps, real estate, and global stocks.
Each day it checks SPY (tracks the S&P 500). If today’s price is above its 100‑day average, it goes defensive: ~76% in Treasuries/TIPS (VGSH, SPTI, VTIP) and ~24% in stocks: U.S. core/small (AVUS, IJR), real estate (VNQ), and international small‑value (AVDV). Otherwise it uses a diversified ~60/40: ~60% global stocks tilted to value and small‑cap (AVUS, RPV, AVUV, AVDE, DFIV, FNDC, AVDV, AVEM, plus IJR/VNQ) and ~40% Treasuries/TIPS. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample, this rules-based strategy blends trend-driven defense with global, value-focused equity, delivering higher risk-adjusted return (oos Sharpe ~3.64 vs SPY 2.68), far smaller drawdowns (1.2% vs 5.1%), and positive alpha, with Calmar ~10.5.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.01 | 0.37 | 0.68 | 0.83 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64.31% | 11.88% | 1.75% | 5.97% | 0.73 | |
| 17.74% | 3.76% | 1.93% | 4.41% | 0.5 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$11,773.73Regulatory Fees
$26.10
Total Slippage
$39.08
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 4, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend filter (100-day), 60/40 variant, value and small-cap tilt, global diversification, treasuries/tips, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
Stocks
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
Stocks
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Stocks
DFIV
Dimensional International Value ETF
Stocks
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF
Stocks
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
Stocks
RPV
Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF
Stocks
SPTI
State Street SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
Stocks