Adaptive Bear Market Strategy
Today’s Change (Jun 22, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Owns broad U.S. stocks when both SPY and QQQ are rising; otherwise parks in defensive sectors (utilities, health care, consumer staples) and short‑term T‑bills. Aims to cut bear‑market losses, with potential lag and whipsaws in choppy markets.
It checks if the recent 50‑day average price is above the longer 200‑day average for SPY (S&P 500) and QQQ (Nasdaq‑100, tech‑heavy). If both are up, it holds 50% SPY and 50% QQQ. If either fails, it shifts to XLU (utilities), XLV (health care), XLP (staples), and BIL (T‑bills), 25% each. Rebalanced daily.
Out-of-sample, this rule-based strategy delivers solid risk-adjusted returns (Calmar 1.33, Sharpe ~1.02) with market-like beta, capturing upside in SPY/QQQ uptrends and rotating to defensives for diversification beyond the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.04 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.89 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 590.79% | 10.69% | 0.09% | 13.88% | 0.61 | |
| 806.11% | 12.28% | 1.54% | 19.65% | 0.78 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$90,611.05Regulatory Fees
$153.37
Total Slippage
$173.90
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 9, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Us equities, trend-following, tactical asset allocation, defensive rotation, sector etfs, moving-average filter
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLU
State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLV
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks