Adaptive All Weather 1.3a Pop Bots l BrianE Mod l Oct 10th 2016
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
An aggressive, all-weather, rules-driven strategy that rotates daily among levered stock bets, defensive sectors, bonds (1x and 3x), commodities, and USD/volatility hedges to chase trends and protect on crashes.
- The portfolio is split into sleeves (stocks, bonds, commodities, and currency/volatility hedges). Each sleeve has a set of candidate assets (mostly ETFs, including levered and inverse types) and a rules-based gate to enter/exit.
- The system runs signals daily using simple momentum and price tests: relative strength (how well an asset has performed vs a reference), moving-average comparisons (is price above/below a longer-term trend), and cumulative return checks (how well an asset has done recently).
- Depending on signals, it chooses a selection of assets (often a small number) and assigns weights so the overall mix tilts toward either risk-on (bullish, levered equity plays) or risk-off (defensive sectors, bonds, cash, USD hedges, or commodities).
- Levered ETFs (e.g., SPXL, TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO, TECL, SPUU, QLD) are used to magnify moves when the model believes there is a strong trend. Inverse or hedging instruments (e.g., SDS, SQQQ, TV via TMF/TMV/TYD, UVXY, USDU) are used to dampen risk or hedge volatility during downturns.
- The model explicitly rotates among macro themes like “Risk ON – Bullish Market Conditions,” “Risk OFF – Rising Rates,” and “Bear Trap/Crash Protection” clusters, choosing assets with the best recent signals (e.g., top/bottom RSI, best cumulative return).
- All allocations are done daily; cash-like positions use short-term Treasuries or equivalents (BIL, SHY, SUB) to keep liquidity when not fully invested.
- The strategy also builds in defensive fund surf (a pool of sector ETFs and anti-beta funds) to shield during stress and to rebalance into defensives when risk metrics spike.
- In short, it’s a dynamic, all-weather framework that tries to ride trends with leverage when favorable, and to shift into hedges and defensives when risk grows. Costs, tax effects, and the risk of large drawdowns are important caveats given the heavy use of levered vehicles.
Compelling value: Out-of-sample annualized return ~37.6% vs SPY ~23.3%, with a Calmar ratio ~1.31 signaling superior risk-adjusted performance; dynamic leverage plus hedges target trends while seeking downside protection.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.72 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 261.46% | 14.61% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.84 | |
| 20,771.23% | 76.29% | 1.64% | 4.02% | 2.03 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,087,122.58Regulatory Fees
$6,967.65
Total Slippage
$42,754.37
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 3, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Multi-asset, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, trend following, risk management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 43 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
COMT
iShares U.S. ETF Trust iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
GLTR
abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF
Stocks
GUSH
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X ETF
Stocks