Adaptive All Weather 1.3a Pop Bots l BrianE Mod l Oct 10th 2016
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules‑based “all‑weather” portfolio with add‑on “pop bots.” It buys oversold dips in 3x index funds, hedges overheated markets with UVXY, rotates bonds with interest‑rate trends, adds USD in stress, and goes to short‑term bonds when fear spikes.
Starts with a 55% bonds, 30% stocks, 15% commodities mix. Each day it adapts. It buys quick dips when indexes look washed‑out (RSI = a hot/cold gauge: low=oversold, high=overheated) using 3x funds like TQQQ/SPXL/SOXL. When things look too hot, it briefly buys UVXY (volatility) expecting a pullback. It flips between long/short Treasuries (TMF/TMV, TYD/TYO) as rates fall/rise and may add USD (UUP/USDU). If fear spikes, it parks in T‑bills (BIL/SHY). Commodities rotate to recent winners.
Out-of-sample edge: ~38% annualized return vs S&P ~23%, Sharpe ~1.19, Calmar ~1.32. A dynamic all-weather core plus mean-reversion 'Pop Bots' seeks higher upside with volatility hedges and regime-aware risk control (drawdowns can be larger).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.72 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 272.7% | 15.26% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.87 | |
| 20,172.82% | 77.45% | -0.15% | 2.97% | 2.04 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$2,027,281.59Regulatory Fees
$6,572.66
Total Slippage
$40,317.18
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 3, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime switching, mean reversion, momentum rotation, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs, crash protection, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 43 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
COMT
iShares U.S. ETF Trust iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
GLTR
abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF
Stocks
GUSH
Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares
Stocks