Aberrant NVDA RSI events test1.2
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily, NVIDIA‑led tactic with a hard brake: after very big 60‑day NVDA run‑ups (>50%) it parks in T‑bills (BIL). Otherwise it reads trend and volatility to go all‑in NVDA, rotate to MSFT/AAPL, or hide in BIL/UUP, using RSI for oversold bounces.
Core idea: follow NVIDIA (NVDA) but step aside after extreme run‑ups. If NVDA gained >50% in 60 days, it moves to BIL (a cash‑like T‑bill ETF). Otherwise it labels markets as calm or choppy by comparing recent vs past volatility.
- Calm and NVDA’s short‑term trend beats its long‑term trend: buy NVDA.
- Calm but trend weak: own the two strongest of NVDA, MSFT, BIL (cash), and UUP (benefits from a stronger US dollar), tilting toward the steadier one.
- Choppy: if NVDA looks “washed out” on RSI (a gauge of fast drops; below ~39), buy NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL equally; else own the two strongest of NVDA, AAPL, BIL, UUP (tilted steadier). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample annualized return 27.66% vs 17.70% for the S&P, with a higher Sharpe (~1.20 vs ~0.94) and Calmar ~1.34. NVDA-driven momentum plus cash hedges seek bigger upside while managing risk, even if drawdowns can be larger.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.77 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 547.86% | 10.63% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.61 | |
| 4,519.95% | 23.03% | -0.13% | -3.92% | 0.83 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$461,995.05Regulatory Fees
$2,625.95
Total Slippage
$12,303.55
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical nvda-led, momentum + rsi, volatility-regime, mega-cap tech, t‑bills cash, us dollar hedge, daily rebalance