Aberrant NVDA RSI events test1.2
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
A daily, NVIDIA‑led tactic with a hard brake: after very big 60‑day NVDA run‑ups (>50%) it parks in T‑bills (BIL). Otherwise it reads trend and volatility to go all‑in NVDA, rotate to MSFT/AAPL, or hide in BIL/UUP, using RSI for oversold bounces.
Core idea: follow NVIDIA (NVDA) but step aside after extreme run‑ups. If NVDA gained >50% in 60 days, it moves to BIL (a cash‑like T‑bill ETF). Otherwise it labels markets as calm or choppy by comparing recent vs past volatility.
- Calm and NVDA’s short‑term trend beats its long‑term trend: buy NVDA.
- Calm but trend weak: own the two strongest of NVDA, MSFT, BIL (cash), and UUP (benefits from a stronger US dollar), tilting toward the steadier one.
- Choppy: if NVDA looks “washed out” on RSI (a gauge of fast drops; below ~39), buy NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL equally; else own the two strongest of NVDA, AAPL, BIL, UUP (tilted steadier). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample edge: 27.66% vs 17.70% annualized return; Sharpe 1.20 vs 0.94; Calmar 1.34. NVDA-led with BIL/UUP hedges seeks bigger upside with disciplined risk vs the S&P.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.77 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 587.72% | 10.94% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.62 | |
| 5,004.95% | 23.57% | 10.5% | 4.95% | 0.85 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$510,495.22Regulatory Fees
$2,683.36
Total Slippage
$12,673.31
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical nvda-led, momentum + rsi, volatility-regime, mega-cap tech, t‑bills cash, us dollar hedge, daily rebalance