Aberrant NVDA RSI events test1.2
Today’s Change (Jul 12, 2026)
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About
A daily, NVIDIA‑led tactic with a hard brake: after very big 60‑day NVDA run‑ups (>50%) it parks in T‑bills (BIL). Otherwise it reads trend and volatility to go all‑in NVDA, rotate to MSFT/AAPL, or hide in BIL/UUP, using RSI for oversold bounces.
Core idea: follow NVIDIA (NVDA) but step aside after extreme run‑ups. If NVDA gained >50% in 60 days, it moves to BIL (a cash‑like T‑bill ETF). Otherwise it labels markets as calm or choppy by comparing recent vs past volatility.
- Calm and NVDA’s short‑term trend beats its long‑term trend: buy NVDA.
- Calm but trend weak: own the two strongest of NVDA, MSFT, BIL (cash), and UUP (benefits from a stronger US dollar), tilting toward the steadier one.
- Choppy: if NVDA looks “washed out” on RSI (a gauge of fast drops; below ~39), buy NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL equally; else own the two strongest of NVDA, AAPL, BIL, UUP (tilted steadier). Rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample edge: annualized return 22.6% vs S&P’s 19.2%, Calmar 1.09 (strong risk-adjusted). NVDA-led strategy with guardrails (cash BIL hedges) to pursue higher upside while employing disciplined risk controls.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.77 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 632.96% | 11.17% | 4.34% | 11.4% | 0.63 | |
| 4,977.94% | 23.23% | -4.55% | 6.13% | 0.84 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$507,793.67Regulatory Fees
$2,377.97
Total Slippage
$13,487.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical nvda-led, momentum + rsi, volatility-regime, mega-cap tech, t‑bills cash, us dollar hedge, daily rebalance