80/20 -> 100/0 Markov Chain Equities x Markov Volatility x Sector Rotator 218% RR, 23.6% Max DD, 43.5% SD 2019 BT)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A complex, regime-based strategy that rotates sector exposure, uses Markov-like rules for bull/bear/dip scenarios, and flips into volatility hedges when markets get choppy; aims to balance upside capture with risk controls via levered sector bets and hedges.
- The strategy runs three interacting parts: Sector Rotator, Markov Chain bets, and Volatility Toggle.
- Sector Rotator looks across 10 major sectors, checks momentum signals (RSI) and recent performance, and picks the strongest sector to own (often via a single top choice per sector group). It uses sector ETFs (e.g., XLK, XLF, XLY, XLI, etc.) and levered proxies (TECL, TQQQ, etc.).
- Markov Chain bets decide how aggressively to invest in equities (often in QQQ family names or leveraged bets like TQQQ) or to pull back into hedges, based on a sequence of regime states (Bull Market, Bear Market, Dip Buys). It includes tiers like 14/21/50/100/200-day checks and rules that trigger “standard deviation” based buys and sell signals.
- Volatility Toggle uses a volatility proxy (VIXY) and other assets (SVXY, BIL, TLT) to detect when the market is calm vs. volatile. In volatile states, it shifts toward hedges (or shorter-duration assets) and reduces aggressive equity exposure; in calmer states, it leans into the sector bets and levered equity bets.
- The root output is an allocation plan that can be 80/20 or 100/0 between equities strategies and volatility/defensive elements, with explicit rebalancing and regime-shifting logic.
- Overall, the system tries to ride sector leadership while staying prepared for volatility and drawdowns, using a lot of ETF proxies that are liquid and easy to trade in a typical broker account.
Out-of-sample, this strategy blends sector rotation, regime bets, and volatility hedges for higher risk-adjusted growth than the S&P 500: OOS Sharpe 1.28 vs 0.97; Calmar 2.07; ~56.7% vs ~17% annualized return, with hedges but larger drawdowns in stress.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 141.87% | 14.91% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.79 | |
| 71,249.87% | 181.09% | 0.77% | 6.09% | 2.6 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,134,986.88Regulatory Fees
$20,333.11
Total Slippage
$133,677.03
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 29, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, sector rotation, volatility hedging, regime switching, leveraged etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 34 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
CURE
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DRN
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
DUSL
Direxion Daily Industrials Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
ERX
Direxion Daily Energy Bull 2X ETF
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
LTL
ProShares Ultra Communication Services
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
QQQE
Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index ETF
Stocks