7. Pop Bot W/ 1x 60/40 (INVEST) | TLT VS SHY EDITION
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
A daily, rules-driven mix of S&P 500, big tech, and chip stocks: buy 3x funds on dips, flip to volatility when overheated, otherwise run a 60/40 stock–bond sleeve with Treasuries (TLT vs SHY) chosen by a simple bond-vs‑T‑bill trend check; sit in T‑bills if weak.
Each day, the portfolio splits 1/3 into three sleeves: S&P 500 (SPXL=3x S&P), Nasdaq 100 (TQQQ=3x big tech), and Semiconductors (SOXL=3x chips). If a sleeve’s 3x fund is very hot (RSI>80, a short‑term “heat” gauge), switch to UVXY (volatility). If very cold (RSI<30), buy the 3x fund. Otherwise: if the 1x fund (SPY/QQQ/SMH) rose over 10 days, hold 60% that + 40% bonds: TLT (long Treasuries) if bonds beat T‑bills (BND≥BIL), else SHY (short Treasuries). If it fell, hold BIL (T‑bills).
Out-of-sample annualized return ~40.8% vs SPY ~21.1%; Calmar ~1.55 and Sharpe ~1.29 signal superior risk-adjusted upside. A diversified, rules-based 3x-sleeve strategy with a volatility hedge aims to outperform, despite higher drawdowns (~26%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.3 | 0.71 | 0.21 | 0.46 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 585.13% | 14.59% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.9 | |
| 19,667.21% | 45.39% | 1.31% | -0.63% | 1.6 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$1,976,721.04Regulatory Fees
$8,374.83
Total Slippage
$55,451.86
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 19, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical momentum + mean-reversion, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, 60/40 sleeve, trend filter, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks