60d OB TEST w/200d Check
Today’s Change (Mar 30, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Daily switcher. If the S&P 500 is above its 200‑day trend, it holds SPY or, in strong conditions, either 3× tech (TQQQ) or inverse small caps (RWM). If below that trend, it parks in T‑bills (BIL). One ETF at a time.
Every day, it makes one of four choices:
1) Big-picture safety check: If the S&P 500 (SPY) is trading above its long-term trend (its average price over ~200 days), stay “risk-on.” If not, park in short‑term Treasuries (BIL).
2) If risk-on, gauge how strong the market is using a momentum score (RSI) over ~60 days. If that score isn’t strong enough (60 or below), just hold SPY.
3) If the momentum score is strong (above 60), look at the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) short‑term vs medium‑term trend. If the very short‑term trend is weaker than the medium‑term trend, buy a 3× version of QQQ (TQQQ) to “buy the dip” in tech. Otherwise, take a defensive, contrarian stance by buying an ETF that goes up when small caps go down (RWM).
4) Only one holding at a time; it can switch daily.
Plain-English guides:
- 200‑day average: a long-term trend line; above it often means an uptrend.
- RSI: a 0–100 speed/strength score of recent price moves; higher means stronger recent gains.
- Short vs medium‑term averages (EMAs): compares very recent price to a slightly longer recent average to see if price is “hot” or “cooling.”
Adaptive, regime-driven strategy trims risk in downturns (shifts to cash) and tactically leverages tech on rallies. Out-of-sample: ~9% annualized return, beta ~0.43, Sharpe ~0.62, Calmar ~0.34 — adds SPY diversification with a distinct risk/return profile.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.41 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 681.17% | 13.62% | -7.68% | -7.76% | 0.83 | |
| 863.5% | 15.11% | -5.2% | -5.29% | 1.07 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$96,350.03Regulatory Fees
$346.76
Total Slippage
$2,120.11
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jun 25, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, etfs, contrarian overlay, daily rebalanced