50/50 S&P 500/Commodities by DereckNielsen
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules-based split between an S&P 500 sleeve and a commodity sleeve. Uses trend and short-term “hot/cold” signals to rotate among stocks, bonds, volatility, or short exposure, and holds a broad commodity fund only when its trends are rising.
Split ~50/50 between stocks and commodities.
Stocks (SPY): if above its long‑term trend, hold SPY unless it gets very “hot” (then hedge with volatility, VIXY) or somewhat hot (tilt to 55% TLT + 45% SPY). If below trend, use SPY, BND, or short S&P (SH); if tech is washed out, a rebound bet via TECL.
Commodities: own broad commodities (DBC) only when trends are up; else hold T‑bills (SHV). RSI = short‑term “hot/cold” gauge.
Out-of-sample, rules-based stock/commodity mix guided by trend signals. Seeks lower beta, controlled drawdowns, and solid risk-adjusted results: Calmar ~0.77, Sharpe ~0.89, vs SPY’s higher return but greater risk.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 590.61% | 13.59% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.83 | |
| 2,155.9% | 22.81% | 10.08% | 14.89% | 1.48 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$225,589.58Regulatory Fees
$337.21
Total Slippage
$2,158.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, trend, us stocks (s&p 500), commodities, treasuries & bonds, volatility, leveraged etf, risk mgmt
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks