50/50 S&P 500/Commodities by DereckNielsen
Today’s Change (Mar 15, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Splits money between US stocks and a broad commodity fund, then shifts inside each sleeve using simple trend (moving averages) and “heat” (RSI) signals to lean into stocks, bonds, or hedges. Note: rules set commodities to ~40% despite the “50/50” title.
Two sleeves: stocks (SPY) and commodities (DBC). Signals used: moving averages = average price over X days (trend); RSI = speed of recent gains/losses (high = hot, low = cold). Stocks: if SPY is trending up, stay in SPY unless it’s very hot (hedge with VIXY) or strong (mix in TLT). If trending down, sometimes play rebounds (TECL) or pair bonds (BND) with SPY or a 1x inverse (SH). Commodities: own DBC only when 50>100>252‑day trends; else T‑bills (SHV).
Diversified, rules-based blend of stocks and commodities with lower beta (~0.80) and a ~18.6% max drawdown. Out-of-sample annualized return ~14.3% with Calmar ~0.77, providing diversification and downside protection vs SPY.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.14 | 0.53 | 0.39 | 0.62 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 581.86% | 13.5% | -2.85% | -2.42% | 0.83 | |
| 2,139.93% | 22.76% | 8.71% | 13.39% | 1.47 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$223,993.05Regulatory Fees
$337.21
Total Slippage
$2,158.64
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 5%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, trend following, momentum, commodities, s&p 500, bonds, volatility hedge, leveraged etfs, inverse etfs
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 11 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SDS
ProShares UltraShort S&P500
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks