A momentum-based, bond-trend-driven strategy that goes long a levered equity ETF (like TQQQ) when bonds look strong and high-yield momentum is positive; otherwise, it shifts to one safe asset among IEF, GLD, or UUP based on recent performance.

- Step 1: Bond trend check — Compute BND’s 60-day cumulative return and compare it to BIL’s 60-day cumulative return. If BND > BIL, the bond trend is considered positive. - Step 2: HYG momentum check — Look at HYG’s momentum over a 45-day window, and also a 2-day window. If either shows positive momentum, that supports taking on risk. - Step 3: Decision point — If both the 60-day bond trend is positive and HYG momentum is positive, deploy to a risk-on, levered equity exposure (in the implementation, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ fund, TQQQ, which is 3x leveraged exposure to the Nasdaq-100). If these conditions aren’t met, switch to risk-off. - Step 4: Risk-off selection — Among IEF (longer-term Treasuries), GLD (gold), and UUP (US dollar index), pick the single asset with the strongest 45-day performance (top by cumulative return) and allocate there. - Step 5: Position sizing and rebalancing — The system uses a fixed 100% allocation to the chosen sleeve with a 5% rebalance corridor and no frequent rebalancing unless signals change. - Step 6: Notes — The intended risk-on instrument in the narrative is UPRO (S&P 500 3x), but the provided implementation uses TQQQ (Nasdaq-100 3x); both are high-leverage bets on equities. The design aims to ride strong uptrends with leverage and to fall back to safety assets when momentum weakens. Risks include leverage amplification, reliance on momentum signals, and potential whipsaws in range-bound markets.

Out-of-sample edge: ~34.2% annualized return vs ~23.1% for the S&P, driven by bond-trend and high-yield momentum with 3x leverage on uptrends and risk-off pivots. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns (~54% vs ~19%).