A regime-based, 3x leveraged strategy that shifts between risk-on equity bets and risk-off hedges using trend and momentum signals. It leans on SPY/UPRO and tech/treasury equivalents, with occasional defensive mixes (BND, SQQQ, XLP) as market conditions change. High risk, high potential reward; not a buy-and-hold approach.

- Determine the regime: secular bull vs secular bear. This is the overarching market mood. - In a secular bull: - Check if SPY (the broad market) is in a Golden Cross (short-term trend above long-term trend). - If SPY shows higher momentum and not overly stretched (RSI <= 60? and related checks in the tree), tilt toward 3x S&P (UPRO). - If SPY is becoming overbought (RSI > 60), shift toward a mix of SPY with TMF (55% SPY, 45% TMF) to take some gains but limit risk with a treasury hedge. - In a secular bear: - Look for a Death Cross-like signal on technology or QQQ-related measures; strong tech weakness (QQQ RSI very low) can justify tilting into TECL (3x tech) or into defensive/bonded positions. - If those signals aren’t met, implement a risk-off mix such as SPY 40% and BND 60% to reduce equity exposure while maintaining some participation in markets via bonds. - There is also a pathway to short exposure (e.g., SQQQ) in a bear regime when certain short-term signals align. - Rotation logic and weights: The strategy uses rule-based allocations (percent weights like 55/45, 40/60, etc.) and sometimes specifies exact holdings (e.g., SPY, TMF, UPRO, TECL, SQQQ, BND, BSV). Assets are combined with “wt-cash-equal” or “wt-cash-specified” rules to reach the target mix. Rebalancing frequency is set to none, meaning you’d rely on the signal logic to trigger changes rather than a calendar-driven rebalance. - Inputs and signals to watch: 50-day vs 200-day moving averages (for trend confirmation), 60-day RSI for SPY (overbought condition), 10-day RSI for QQQ (tech weakness), and a 200-day moving average check as a longer-term trend filter. Some branches also reference a 50-day vs 200-day comparison on SPY as a cross-check. - Outcome expectations: In strong up moves with calm momentum, you may see exposure to 3x long stock bets (UPRO, TECL) or SPY. In downturns or choppy markets, you’ll see more hedged positions (TMF, BND, SQQQ or XLP) intended to limit downside. The levered nature magnifies both sides, so it’s suitable for a portion of a diversified portfolio and requires a strong risk tolerance.

Out-of-sample edge: regime-based 3x levered rotations deliver ~42.95% annualized vs SPY ~21.87%. Hedge-driven risk controls aim at upside, but expect higher drawdowns than the S&P 500.