241007 BASE KMLM SVIX BSC v2 TEC/SOX/HIB Baller v BIL *SSL
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About
Daily, high‑octane ETF strategy that swings between leveraged tech/semis bulls and bears using “hot/cold” signals plus bond and volatility checks, and parks in T‑bills when conditions aren’t friendly.
Each day it checks the backdrop first: is volatility calm (SVIX, an inverse VIX fund, is firm) and is Tech not too hot vs KMLM (a trend‑following managed‑futures fund)? If not, it holds T‑bills (BIL).
If yes, bond/credit trends pick a bull or bear stance. Then a “hot/cold” meter (RSI) on TQQQ (3× Nasdaq) and recent 1–6 day moves drive tactics:
- Washed‑out → buy TECL/SOXL/HIBL (3× Tech/Semis/High‑Beta).
- Overheated or big pop → use UVXY/TECS/SOXS/HIBS (hedges) or step back to T‑bills.
Bond cues can add or cut long‑Treasury exposure.
Out-of-sample edge: 22.9% annualized return vs 17.3% S&P, with risk controls (bonds, cash, vol hedges). Strong upside in tech/semis regimes; expect bigger drawdowns in stress but potential for higher long-run growth.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.96 | -0.63 | 0.06 | -0.25 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.72% | 14.08% | 1.72% | 4.21% | 0.86 | |
| 3,130.36% | 116.76% | -5.83% | 11.78% | 2 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$323,035.51Regulatory Fees
$1,368.58
Total Slippage
$11,542.59
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 20, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical etf rotation, leveraged tech/semis, volatility timing, trend and mean‑reversion, bond/credit filters, daily rebalance