20d BND vs 60d SH (XLK/XLP) + L/S Rotator
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily tactical mix: regime gate between bonds and a stock hedge, sector tilt between XLK and XLP guided by price/momentum signals, and a fallback long/short rotation among hedged assets chosen by recent volatility.
- Every day, the strategy evaluates a regime gate to decide if it should lean toward sector bets or fall back to rotation among hedged/defensive assets.
- Regime gate (20d BND vs 60d SH): compute momentum signals on BND and SH. If BND’s momentum is stronger than SH’s, proceed to the sector tilt checks.
- Sector tilt (XLK vs XLP): also check SPY’s trend: is SPY trading above its 200-day average? If yes, pick a sector bet based on a short-term momentum check: if XLK’s 10-day RSI relative to QQQ’s RSI(10d) is below 30, tilt to XLK (technology); otherwise tilt to XLP (consumer staples).
- If the regime gate or the RSI/price checks don’t favor XLK or XLP, switch to the Long/Short Rotator.
- Long/Short Rotator: from a pool of six assets (TMV, TMF, SVXY, VIXM, GLD, BIL), rank by recent volatility (standard deviation of returns over the last 5 days) and take the four with the lowest volatility, weighting them equally. This creates a diversified, hedged exposure rather than a single directional bet.
- Weighting and rebalancing: positions are built with equal cash-style weights within each chosen group, and the overall portfolio is rebalanced daily.
- Tickers and what they represent: XLK (Technology SPDR), XLP (Consumer Staples SPDR), SPY (S&P 500 ETF), QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF), BND (Total Bond Market), SH (ProShares Short S&P 500), TMV (leveraged inverse Treasury), TMF (leveraged Treasury), SVXY (short VIX), VIXM (VIX futures mid-term), GLD (Gold), BIL (1–3 month Treasuries). The approach blends trend signals, momentum, and volatility-based rotation to attempt to capture upside while containing downside.
Out-of-sample: ~24.3% annualized return vs ~21.2% for SPY, with smaller drawdown (17.2% vs 18.8%) and Calmar 1.41. Daily regime gate plus sector/defensive rotation seeks higher upside with lower risk than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.15 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 0.67 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 620.16% | 14.7% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.9 | |
| 2,916.56% | 26.71% | -3.46% | -6.32% | 1.47 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$301,655.92Regulatory Fees
$857.42
Total Slippage
$5,435.83
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, regime filter, sector rotation, risk control, long/short rotation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks