20d BND vs 60d SH (XLK/XLP) + L/S Rotator
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Daily, it gauges risk using bonds vs inverse S&P. In risk‑on it buys tech (XLK), otherwise staples (XLP). In risk‑off it either buys oversold tech or rotates into the 4 calmest of gold, T‑bills, Treasury up/down, and volatility up/down funds.
Regime: Compare 20‑day strength of BND (US bonds) with 60‑day strength of SH (inverse S&P; up when stocks fall). If BND>SH → risk‑on.
Risk‑on: Buy XLK (tech). If SPY is below its 200‑day average and QQQ isn’t oversold (10‑day RSI≥30), use XLP (consumer‑staples).
Risk‑off: If QQQ is oversold (RSI<30), buy XLK; else hold the 4 least‑volatile (equal‑weight) from TMF/TMV (Treasury up/down), SVXY/VIXM (vol down/up), GLD (gold), BIL (T‑bills).
Daily rebalance. RSI=0–100 momentum; 200‑day avg=trend.
Out-of-sample edge: ~24.3% annual return vs ~21.2% for S&P, with smaller drawdown (17.2% vs 18.8%). Regime switching and diversified safety assets aim for higher upside with controlled risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, regime switching, sector rotation, rsi/momentum, defensive rotation, low-volatility filter
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks