20d BND vs 60d SH (XLK/XLP) + L/S Rotator
Today’s Change (Dec 14, 2025)
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About
A daily, risk‑on/risk‑off strategy. It compares bond strength to short‑S&P strength. In healthier conditions it favors tech (XLK) or staples (XLP). In stress it either buys deeply oversold tech or rotates into a calm mix of Treasuries, volatility, gold, and T‑bills.
Daily: If bonds’ 20‑day strength (BND) beats the 60‑day strength of being short stocks (SH), go to sectors: if the S&P 500 (SPY) is above its 200‑day trend, buy tech (XLK); if below, buy tech only if the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) is very oversold; else buy staples (XLP). If bonds don’t win: still buy tech if QQQ is very oversold; otherwise hold the 4 calmest of {TMF, TMV, SVXY, VIXM, GLD, BIL}.
RSI = a 0–100 recent‑momentum score; low = oversold. 200‑day average ≈ long‑term trend.
Tickers: XLK=tech; XLP=consumer staples; BND=bonds; SH=short S&P 500; SPY=S&P 500; QQQ=Nasdaq‑100; TMF/TMV=leveraged long/short Treasuries; SVXY/VIXM=volatility; GLD=gold; BIL=T‑bills.
Out-of-sample edge: ~24.5% annualized return with near-market beta, lower drawdown (17.2% vs 18.8%), and Calmar ~1.43—delivering stronger risk-adjusted gains than the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 0.67 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 631.74% | 15.11% | -0.24% | 3.99% | 0.92 | |
| 3,145.57% | 27.89% | -2.23% | 6.23% | 1.53 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$324,557.17Regulatory Fees
$799.11
Total Slippage
$5,061.43
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 15, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical allocation, momentum, trend-following, sector rotation, risk-on/risk-off, volatility/treasury/gold basket
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 12 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SVXY
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
TMV
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (based on the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index; symbol AXTWEN)
Stocks
VIXM
ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
Stocks