A rule-based, momentum-driven allocation that uses SPY trend, bond vs risk-off momentum, and RSI/relative-strength signals to tilt between tech (XLK), staples (XLP), and safety assets, with equal weighting and infrequent rebalancing.

Here’s the idea in plain language: - The system first asks: Is the overall market in an uptrend? It checks if the price of the broad market ETF (SPY) is above its 200-day average. If yes, it leans into equities; if no, it favors something more defensive. - Next, it checks whether bonds look stronger than risk-off exposure (via each ETF’s momentum). If bonds look relatively strong (20-day RSI for BND is higher than 60-day RSI for SH), the model keeps a growth tilt. If not, it tilts toward safer choices. - Within equities, it mainly prefers XLK (Technology) but uses additional momentum tests (involving QQQ and RSI levels) to decide whether to stay with tech or switch toward XLP (Consumer Staples) or even a safety position (SHV). - When a path is chosen, the strategy allocates cash evenly among the selected assets (equal-weighting), rather than weighting by size or volatility. - It does not rebalance on a strict calendar; it re-evaluates only when small signal changes cross a 1% tolerance, which means trades are relatively rare and based on the trigger conditions above. - The net effect is a dynamic, signal-driven mix of tech exposure, defensive consumer staples exposure, and safety assets, with an effort to keep positions simple (equal weights) and not overtrade.

Out-of-sample edge: ~23.3% annualized return vs SPY ~22.1%, similar drawdowns and Calmar ~1.27. A disciplined, momentum-driven tilt among tech, staples and safety delivers higher risk-adjusted growth with less trading.