A concentrated market-timing strategy that goes all-in on tech when conditions look favorable or washed out, and otherwise shifts to defensive staples or cash-like Treasuries.

This strategy is an all-in switch between 3 choices: tech stocks (XLK), defensive consumer staples stocks (XLP), or very short-term Treasuries/cash-like bonds (SHV). It first checks whether the bond market looks stronger than a stock-market hedge. If yes, it prefers taking stock risk. In that case, if the broad U.S. market is in a healthy long-term uptrend, it buys tech. If not, it still buys tech when the Nasdaq looks heavily sold off; otherwise it hides in consumer staples. If bonds do not look stronger, it becomes more cautious: it buys tech only after a sharp Nasdaq selloff; otherwise it parks in short-term Treasuries.

Out-of-sample shows higher long-term growth (≈25.4% vs 20.5% S&P) with tighter downside (Calmar ≈1.38; max drawdown ≈18.36%). An all-in rotation among XLK, XLP, and SHV captures tech upside and protects against drops.