20d BND vs 60d SH
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Single‑ETF strategy that gauges risk by bonds vs inverse‑S&P strength, then rotates: Tech in healthy trends or oversold bounces, Staples in weak markets, or cash‑like T‑bills when risk is high.
It first compares a 0–100 “strength score” (RSI) of BND (US bonds, 20 days) to SH (inverse S&P 500, 60 days). If bonds look stronger: If SPY is above its 200‑day average, buy XLK (Tech). If not, but QQQ’s 10‑day RSI < 30 (very oversold), still buy XLK; else buy XLP (Staples). If bonds aren’t stronger: If QQQ is oversold, buy XLK; else hold SHV (T‑bills). One ETF at a time.
Out-of-sample, this rotation strategy delivers higher annualized returns (23.29% vs 22.07% for the S&P 500) with similar risk and a modestly lower drawdown, plus Calmar ~1.27— a disciplined edge in varied markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.16 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 0.7 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 530.44% | 10.27% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.59 | |
| 5,725.4% | 24.09% | -1.57% | -2.73% | 1.33 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$582,540.15Regulatory Fees
$1,486.68
Total Slippage
$9,743.45
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Jan 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Sector rotation, trend-following, risk-on/off filter, rsi, 200-day moving average, cash parking
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 7 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHV
iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
XLK
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks
XLP
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF
Stocks