20d BND vs 20d SPHB
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, rule-based momentum strategy switching between safe (SHV) and aggressive (SOXL/SOXX) bets, guided by 20-day RSI on bonds vs high-beta stocks and supported by short-term RSI checks on semis/volatility; high risk and dynamic exposure shifts.
- Every day, compute 20-day RSI for BND (bond fund) and SPHB (high-beta stock fund). If RSI(BND,20) > RSI(SPHB,20), the system follows a defensive path focused on safe/cash-like exposure; otherwise it goes into a risk-on/tactical path.
- In the defensive path, the primary asset is SHV (short-term Treasury ETF) with additional checks that may adjust exposure to other assets (e.g., semiconductor-related or volatility-related) only if certain momentum thresholds are met. The exact nested checks involve short-term RSI readings (window 10) on related assets, with thresholds that can trigger moving into or out of SHV.
- In the risk-on path, the system looks to SOXL (levered semiconductor ETF) as a core long, but only if its momentum isn't deteriorating drastically. If SOXL momentum is weak (e.g., RSI below a low threshold like 30 on a short window) the model shifts away from SOXL toward SHV (defensive) or other safe signals.
- UVXY (volatility ETF) is used as a hedge signal: when volatility momentum is high (e.g., RSI on UVXY above a high threshold), the strategy tends to retreat toward SHV or reduce risky exposure.
- The structure includes an explicit cash-equal weight mechanism, effectively keeping cash as a baseline in many parts of the decision tree.
- In short, the strategy toggles between safety (SHV/cash-like exposure) and aggressive bets (SOXL/SOXX) based on a network of RSI signals across BND, SPHB, SOXL, SOXX, UVXY, and SHV, with volatility-driven hedges and multiple fallback rules to avoid lingering in unfavorable conditions.
Out-of-sample, this strategy targets ~42% annualized returns vs SPY’s ~19%, using daily momentum shifts between aggressive bets and SHV cash with hedges. Higher upside comes with higher drawdown risk, but it can outperform in strong bull markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.54 | 2.38 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 2,190,011.2% | 100.4% | -21.72% | -8.93% | 1.41 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$219,011,119.52Regulatory Fees
$357,340.41
Total Slippage
$2,554,118.02
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Mar 12, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Rule-based momentum, multi-asset, tactical, high-risk
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total