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2024 TQQQ or Not - Non-Degen Gambler Variant
Today’s Change

A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily-rotating, risk-on/off system that largely bets on leveraged tech (TQQQ) but pivots to hedges (UVXY/SQQQ) or cash (BIL) based on momentum and volatility signals, plus a separate safety-rotation path to one safe asset when risk spikes.
NutHow it works
How it works in plain language: - Core idea: daily, rule-based switching between a high-risk levered tech plan and safety hedges, with cash when risk is high. The plan mainly uses TQQQ (a 3x levered bet on tech), but it adds hedges (UVXY, SQQQ) and cash (BIL) depending on market signals. - Signals come from a mix of indicators and lookbacks, including short-term momentum (how well TQQQ or QQQ has performed recently), overbought/oversold moods (RSI-style checks), and simple performance since yesterday or over a few days (cumulative return). It also compares bonds vs stocks to gauge risk appetite (e.g., BND/IEF vs SPY/QQQ). - Rough flow: (1) check if short-term tech momentum is very strong or very overbought; if yes, deploy cash or hedges; (2) if momentum is weaker or volatility spikes, shift toward hedged or cash positions; (3) in a “normal market” path, allow a diversified but still aggressive posture by combining QQQ proxies, bonds, and cash; (4) a dedicated “Safety Rotator” path can select a single safe asset (TLT, VIXY, VTI, or XLP) when risk is judged very high. - What each asset does: • TQQQ: aims for big gains if tech stocks rally, but is very volatile and losses can be large if markets fall. • UVXY: bets on rising market fear (volatility) to profit when fear spikes. • SQQQ: inverse-tech exposure, profits when tech falls (short QQQ). • BIL: a cash-like ETF that holds very short-term Treasuries; used when the model wants a safe, near-cash position. • QQQ/SPY/BND/IEF/TLT/VTI/XLP/VIXY/TMF/TQM (some appear in the logic): used for momentum, risk checks, or as alternative exposure buckets (bonds, broad market, consumer staples, etc.). - Decision style: the model uses a mix of thresholds (e.g., RSI-based rules around 10- or 45-day windows, one-day or multi-day cumulative returns, and select top/bottom assets from small groups). These conditions are nested—one rule often only triggers if a higher-level rule is true, creating a multi-layered decision tree. - Risk controls: multiple “max drawdown” or extreme-performance checks exist before committing to aggressive actions; there are explicit cash and hedging steps to avoid “risk meltdown” days. - Rebalance: the plan states daily rebalancing, meaning it reassesses and adjusts holdings every trading day based on the latest signals. - Goal: capture upside in a rising tech-led market while keeping a safety net via cash and hedges when signals turn concerning, with a separate safety path to pick a single safe asset if conditions look extremely adverse.
CheckmarkValue prop
Tech-led, risk-managed strategy seeks higher upside via levered tech exposure, hedges, and safety rotation. Out-of-sample: ~31% annualized return vs ~19.7% for S&P, but with higher drawdown (~32%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
AlphaBetaR2R
0.710.970.130.37
Performance Metrics
Cumulative ReturnAnnualized ReturnTrailing 1M ReturnTrailing 3M ReturnSharpe Ratio
608.48%14.63%-1.77%0.2%0.9
5,332,357.71%113.65%-5.25%-9.91%1.92
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$533,245,770.91
Regulatory Fees
$1,827,082.20
Total Slippage
$13,109,192.05
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 28, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged tech, volatility hedges, tactical rotation, momentum/rsi, mean-reversion, bond-vs-stock checks, cash management
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
IEF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

The symphony is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

The symphony is currently allocated toBILandSQQQ. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, the symphony has returned 22.94%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for the symphony is 32.00%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in the symphony, simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.