A regime-switching, 3x-levered strategy: long 3x equity ETFs when SPY is above its 200-day average; otherwise, tilt toward hedges (SQQQ/SHY) or a qualified levered exposure based on short-term RSI signals, with a cash fallback when signals aren’t strong.

How it works in plain language: - Step 1: Compare SPY’s current price to its 200-day moving average. If SPY is above the 200-day average, you’re in a bullish regime: the system goes long 3x leveraged equity exposure (options include TECL for tech or UPRO for broad market). Think of this as using borrowed money to amplify gains when the market is in a sustained uptrend. - Step 2: If SPY is below its 200-day moving average, you’re in a bearish regime. The strategy then uses momentum signals to decide among hedges and defense: - It checks short-term momentum signals on Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and SPY with 10- and 14-day lookbacks. If certain momentum thresholds are met (RSI readings around the oversold territory, e.g., below 30), the model tilts toward specific levered equity bets again (TECL or UPRO) in an attempt to capture mean-reversion or resilience signals within a weak regime. - It also evaluates hedges: SHY (short-term Treasuries) and SQQQ (3x inverse Nasdaq) and picks the strongest among them based on a 10-day RSI ranking. This is a risk-off tilt intended to protect capital when market momentum is negative. - Step 3: Cash is used as a fallback in several branches, indicating that if signals aren’t compelling enough, the system can stay in cash rather than take a weak or uncertain position. - Rebalancing is set to none in this structure, meaning positions aren’t rebalanced on a fixed schedule but rather updated when a signal is encountered (effectively a signal-driven transition rather than a periodic rebalance). The 0.1 corridor width suggests a tolerance band around the signals but is not a hard rebalancing trigger. - What you’re exposed to: The strategy primarily targets US equity risk with leverage (TECL, UPRO) during strong uptrends. When risk-off triggers, it shifts exposure toward QQQ/SQQQ dynamics and short-term Treasuries (SHY), with a guarded option to hold cash. The net exposure is driven by a small set of tickers: SPY, TECL, UPRO, QQQ, SQQQ, SHY, SPY, and SHY. The design is tech+equity tilt in good times and a mix of hedges/defense in bad times, with some RSI-tuned tilts in between. - Practical considerations and risk: Because this uses 3x leveraged ETFs, gains and losses multiply quickly. The reliance on a 200-day moving average and short RSI thresholds makes the system susceptible to whipsaws in choppy markets. As with any levered strategy, long horizons under compounding can erode value if held through extended sideways or volatile regimes. It’s essential to understand that this is a tactical, not a plain buy-and-hold approach, and it may frequently rotate into and out of leverage, defenses, and cash.

Out-of-sample: ~66% annualized vs SPY ~22%, via regime-based 3x longs with hedges/cash. Captures big uptrends; uses risk controls in downturns. Expect higher upside but larger drawdowns (~50%). Sharpe ~1.16, Calmar ~1.34.