200d MA 3x Leverage | with fund surfing and Black swan catcher 10/04/11
Today’s Change (Mar 13, 2026)
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About
Daily, rules-based plan: ride uptrends with 3× equity funds, hide in T‑Bills/bonds when weak, buy only sharp dips, and use VIX funds as crash insurance. Uses a 200‑day average, RSI, and Treasury trends to switch gears.
Each day it checks trend and fear. If the Nasdaq-100 is above its 200‑day average, it rides the uptrend with a 3× tech fund; if things get too “hot,” it briefly holds a VIX fund as crash insurance. If the trend is weak, it mostly parks in T‑Bills/bonds, may buy sharp dips in 3× funds, and runs a Treasury trend trade (long or short). A “black swan” sleeve adds VIX exposure when fear jumps.
Out-of-sample edge: ~78% annualized return vs ~21% for the S&P, Sharpe ~1.35, Calmar ~1.73. Uses trend-following and crash hedges to capture big upside while managing risk, though drawdowns can exceed the S&P's.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | 1.66 | 0.28 | 0.53 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 664.01% | 15.16% | -2.23% | -2.01% | 0.92 | |
| 4,585,430.2% | 110.67% | -11.86% | -19.34% | 1.67 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$458,553,020.21Regulatory Fees
$715,696.58
Total Slippage
$5,127,284.15
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 21, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, leveraged etfs, volatility hedging, market timing, risk-on/risk-off
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks