200d MA 3x Leverage | with fund surfing and Black swan catcher 10/04/11
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
Daily, risk-on/risk-off strategy using a 200-day trend and short-term “hot/cold” signals. Buys 3x S&P/Nasdaq/semis on dips, times Treasuries, hedges with VIX, and parks in T-Bills when choppy—aiming to catch crashes and rebounds.
Each day it checks fear using a VIX fund’s hot/cold score (RSI, 0–100). If fear is extreme: run “pop bots”—buy 3x S&P/Nasdaq/semis on dips, hedge with VIX when too hot, else sit in T-Bills.
If fear is normal: if 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) is above its 200-day trend, hold it unless too hot (then hedge). If below trend, buy tech on deep dips, or—when calm—rotate into the coldest fund and time long bonds; when choppy, park in T-Bills. A small sleeve flips between short bonds and inverse Nasdaq.
Out-of-sample edge: a risk-on/risk-off system with 3x levered signals and volatility hedges. OOS annualized return ~78% vs S&P ~21%; Sharpe ~1.35 vs 1.33; Calmar ~1.73. Note higher drawdowns (~45% vs 19%).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | 1.65 | 0.28 | 0.52 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 716.72% | 15.58% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.95 | |
| 6,171,520.77% | 113.94% | 33.17% | 12.86% | 1.69 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$617,162,077.07Regulatory Fees
$854,367.54
Total Slippage
$6,123,758.15
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 21, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, market timing, bonds timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks