200d MA 3x Leverage | with fund surfing and Black swan catcher 10/04/11
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
Daily, risk-on/risk-off strategy using a 200-day trend and short-term “hot/cold” signals. Buys 3x S&P/Nasdaq/semis on dips, times Treasuries, hedges with VIX, and parks in T-Bills when choppy—aiming to catch crashes and rebounds.
Each day it checks fear using a VIX fund’s hot/cold score (RSI, 0–100). If fear is extreme: run “pop bots”—buy 3x S&P/Nasdaq/semis on dips, hedge with VIX when too hot, else sit in T-Bills.
If fear is normal: if 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) is above its 200-day trend, hold it unless too hot (then hedge). If below trend, buy tech on deep dips, or—when calm—rotate into the coldest fund and time long bonds; when choppy, park in T-Bills. A small sleeve flips between short bonds and inverse Nasdaq.
Out-of-sample edge: higher risk-adjusted upside than the S&P. This strategy targets ~78% annualized return vs ~21% for SPY, with Sharpe ~1.35 and Calmar ~1.73, plus hedges and risk controls for crashes. Higher potential with disciplined risk.
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Nov 21, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend following, tactical allocation, leveraged etfs, volatility hedge, momentum, risk-on/risk-off, market timing, bonds timing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 18 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks