A rules-based ETF rotation that rides tech in good times and moves to Treasuries/defensive sectors when markets are overheated, weak, or volatile. It uses simple signals (trend, a hot/cold score, and volatility) and may add gold or emerging markets when conditions fit.

It’s a bundle of simple rule sets. First, it checks trend (price vs 200‑day average), a hot/cold gauge (RSI: 0–100; <~30 = washed out, >~80 = overheated), and volatility. In uptrends it favors big‑tech funds (QQQ/XLK; sometimes 2x QLD) unless they’re overheated—then it hides in Treasuries or defensive sectors (staples/health/utility). In downtrends or big drops/vol spikes, it shifts to bonds/defensives. It sometimes uses gold or emerging markets when their own trend/RSI looks attractive. Usually 1–3 ETFs are held at a time.

Out-of-sample edge: Sharpe ~2.61 vs SPY ~1.83; annualized return ~40% vs ~21%; beta ~0.58 means less market sensitivity. Calmar ~6.06 signals strong risk-adjusted growth, though expect larger drawdowns in downturns.