A simple, non-leveraged, two-step rule-based approach. First, it uses SPY’s short-term vs. longer-term drawdown to judge if risk-taking is reasonable. If yes, it then decides between going with growth-oriented QQQ (when bonds did relatively well over 60 days) or staying in the safe BIL. If the SPY check fails, it stays in the safe side (BIL). The strategy aims to preserve capital in downturns and capture upside when conditions look favorable, using SPY, QQQ, BND, and BIL with a start date of 8/23/2007 and no automatic rebalancing.

- You start with a simple test on SPY (the broad US stock market). If SPY’s short-term downside over 21 days is smaller than its downside over 180 days, the plan treats the market as potentially favorable for taking some risk. If this condition is true, the strategy then asks: which asset should we hold to participate in potential upside while controlling risk? - To answer that, it compares the last 60 days’ performance of two bond options: BND (the broad bond market) and BIL (very short-term Treasuries). If BND has done better than BIL in the last 60 days, the plan chooses QQQ (a tech-heavy stock ETF) as the exposure. If BND has not outperformed BIL, it chooses BIL (the safer, short-term bond instrument). - If the SPY test on drawdown is not favorable (i.e., SPY’s 21-day drawdown is not less than its 180-day drawdown), the strategy shifts to safety by holding BIL (or weighting cash in a safe way), rather than taking on the riskier QQQ exposure. - The plan uses no leverage (1x), and there is no automatic periodic rebalancing; the position can switch only when the rules fire. The intent is to avoid big losses in downturns while trying to capture upside when the market environment looks supportive. - In practice, you’re looking at four main assets: SPY (for the trend/test), QQQ (growth exposure if conditions are favorable), BND (bond-based risk-on/off signal), and BIL (cash-like, short-term safety). The outer SPY check acts as a guardrail; the inner BND/BIL check determines whether the strategy leans into growth (QQQ) or stays in safer bonds (BIL).

Disciplined, 1x rule-based strategy with capital preservation. Beta ≈0.86; growth only when SPY signals favorable risk, else safe. OOS Sharpe ≈0.84 and Calmar ≈0.69 suggest steadier risk-adjusted exposure vs. pure equity.