1NS15 Risk On or Risk Off Bitcoin | Garen | https://www.investorcollab.com
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily risk-on/off rule using BITO's 5/100-day moving-average cross to switch between a full BITO position (risk-on) and an equal-weighted mix of IEF, GLD, SLV, and TLT (risk-off).
What it does in plain language:
- It runs every day and looks at BITO's price trends.
- It calculates two simple averages of BITO's price: a short-term 5-day average and a longer 100-day average.
- If BITO's 5-day average is higher than its 100-day average, the system considers market mood to be upbeat and puts all money into BITO (risk-on).
- If the 5-day average is not higher, the mood is considered cautious and the system spreads money equally across four safer assets: IEF, GLD, SLV, and TLT (risk-off).
- The allocation is rebalanced daily to match the current rule.
- BITO is a bitcoin futures ETF (not bitcoin spot). The other four are traditional assets: IEF (mid-term Treasuries), TLT (long-term Treasuries), GLD (gold), SLV (silver).
Out-of-sample shows ~41% annualized gains, ~0.51 beta, and ~1.06 Sharpe vs SPY. A simple risk-on/off rule using BITO momentum switches to a diversified safe-basket in downturns, delivering strong risk-adjusted returns (Calmar ~1.45).
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.37% | 13.94% | -2.02% | -1.16% | 0.83 | |
| 179.56% | 29.37% | 2.52% | 12.98% | 0.86 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$27,955.65Regulatory Fees
$21.31
Total Slippage
$70.54
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 21, 2022
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/off, moving-average crossover, bito etf, tactical allocation, daily rebalance, crypto exposure