10d BIL vs 10d IEF - SOXX MR
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily binary rotation between SOXX (semiconductors) and SHV (short Treasuries), guided by 10-day RSI signals on BIL/IEF and extremes in SOXX RSI. Mostly defensive (SHV) with an occasional tilt to SOXX when SOXX is oversold.
- RSI is a momentum indicator that compares recent gains and losses to gauge overbought/oversold conditions. A common interpretation: higher values mean stronger recent upward moves; very high values suggest the asset may be due for a pullback, while very low values suggest a rebound could follow. In this strategy, RSI is calculated over the last 10 days for several tickers.
- The strategy compares the 10-day RSI of BIL (very short-term Treasuries) to the 10-day RSI of IEF (longer-term Treasuries). If RSI(BIL) < RSI(IEF), the system considers a risk-on or risk-off tilt based on a second check. If RSI(BIL) >= RSI(IEF), it uses the same second checks (the DSL shows symmetric branching, but the final actions end up based on SOXX RSI readings).
- The next check uses SOXX's 10-day RSI. If RSI(SOXX,10) > 80, the model switches to SHV (defensive, short Treasuries). If RSI(SOXX,10) < 30, it shifts to SOXX (risk-on, semiconductor equities). If RSI(SOXX,10) is between 30 and 80, it defaults back to SHV (defensive).
- The position is always 100% in a single asset (no diversification across both SOXX and SHV at the same time).
- The daily rebalance means the portfolio is re-evaluated and re-allocated every trading day based on the latest RSI signals. The assets involved are: SHV (short-term Treasuries) and SOXX (semiconductors). The BIL/IEF comparison is used as a regime filter, but in practice the day-to-day decision is driven by SOXX RSI thresholds. This is a tactical, binary rotation strategy with a bias toward safety unless SOXX shows an oversold condition, in which case it tilts toward equities in the semiconductor sector.
- Practical notes: expect exposure to interest-rate and macro regime shifts via the bond ETFs, plus sector risk via SOXX. Transaction costs and tax considerations of daily trading may impact real-world performance. The strategy is educational and should be backtested and understood before live use.
Value prop: A rules-based SHV/SOXX binary rotation that stays defensive unless SOXX is oversold, delivering tighter downside control and steady upside. OOS: drawdown 9.11% vs 18.76% (S&P); return 14.88% vs 20.38%; Calmar 1.63.
Loading backtest data...
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, binary rotation, risk management, daily rebalance, sector rotation