10d BIL vs 10d IEF - SOXX MR
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About
A daily binary rotation between SOXX (semiconductors) and SHV (short Treasuries), guided by 10-day RSI signals on BIL/IEF and extremes in SOXX RSI. Mostly defensive (SHV) with an occasional tilt to SOXX when SOXX is oversold.
- RSI is a momentum indicator that compares recent gains and losses to gauge overbought/oversold conditions. A common interpretation: higher values mean stronger recent upward moves; very high values suggest the asset may be due for a pullback, while very low values suggest a rebound could follow. In this strategy, RSI is calculated over the last 10 days for several tickers.
- The strategy compares the 10-day RSI of BIL (very short-term Treasuries) to the 10-day RSI of IEF (longer-term Treasuries). If RSI(BIL) < RSI(IEF), the system considers a risk-on or risk-off tilt based on a second check. If RSI(BIL) >= RSI(IEF), it uses the same second checks (the DSL shows symmetric branching, but the final actions end up based on SOXX RSI readings).
- The next check uses SOXX's 10-day RSI. If RSI(SOXX,10) > 80, the model switches to SHV (defensive, short Treasuries). If RSI(SOXX,10) < 30, it shifts to SOXX (risk-on, semiconductor equities). If RSI(SOXX,10) is between 30 and 80, it defaults back to SHV (defensive).
- The position is always 100% in a single asset (no diversification across both SOXX and SHV at the same time).
- The daily rebalance means the portfolio is re-evaluated and re-allocated every trading day based on the latest RSI signals. The assets involved are: SHV (short-term Treasuries) and SOXX (semiconductors). The BIL/IEF comparison is used as a regime filter, but in practice the day-to-day decision is driven by SOXX RSI thresholds. This is a tactical, binary rotation strategy with a bias toward safety unless SOXX shows an oversold condition, in which case it tilts toward equities in the semiconductor sector.
- Practical notes: expect exposure to interest-rate and macro regime shifts via the bond ETFs, plus sector risk via SOXX. Transaction costs and tax considerations of daily trading may impact real-world performance. The strategy is educational and should be backtested and understood before live use.
Value prop: A rules-based SHV/SOXX binary rotation that stays defensive unless SOXX is oversold, delivering tighter downside control and steady upside. OOS: drawdown 9.11% vs 18.76% (S&P); return 14.88% vs 20.38%; Calmar 1.63.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 525.68% | 10.29% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.59 | |
| 309.15% | 7.81% | 0.25% | 0.83% | 0.83 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$40,914.77Regulatory Fees
$104.43
Total Slippage
$653.25
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Feb 2, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical asset allocation, momentum, binary rotation, risk management, daily rebalance, sector rotation