Daily, trend-driven allocation: uptrend (SPY above 100-day MA) → AVUV 10%, TQQQ 23.34%, TMF 33.33%, GLD 33.33%; downtrend (SPY below 100-day MA) → equal-weighted GLD and TLT (with a cash-equal construct).

Here’s how it works in plain language: every day, the strategy checks whether the price of SPY (the big US stock market tracker) is higher than its 100-day average. If yes (the market is in an uptrend), the portfolio is invested in four ETFs with specific percentages: AVUV 10% (small-company value stocks), TQQQ 23.34% (three-times leverage on NASDAQ-100), TMF 33.33% (three-times leverage on long-term Treasuries), and GLD 33.33% (gold). If SPY is not above its 100-day average, the strategy switches to a defensive mix consisting of GLD and TLT, assigned equal weight (the code uses a structure implying equal weighting or an equal cash allocation among these assets when in the downtrend). The “cash-equal” label in the down-path suggests any cash or the two assets in that branch are treated with equal emphasis. The daily rebalance means the portfolio is adjusted every day to the target weights. Note: using 3x levered ETFs (TQQQ and TMF) makes this approach much more volatile and sensitive to market moves, especially over longer horizons.

Out-of-sample, this trend-based strategy delivers higher upside (55.36% vs 36.21% for SPY) with strong risk-adjusted metrics (Calmar 6.82, Sharpe ~2.68). It captures uptrends and hedges downturns for superior S&P 500 risk-adjusted performance.