$ v1.1 of Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Jan 19, 2026)
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About
Crash‑aware, rates‑driven HFEA that avoids K‑1s. Buys leveraged growth/long bonds when conditions are friendly, shifts to USD or inverse hedges when rates rise, and parks in short‑term Treasuries during crashes or sharp drops.
Goal: a safer, event‑driven HFEA (no K‑1s). It flips on 3 checks:
1) Crash? If the “fear” ETF VIXM is very hot (RSI>69; RSI = 0–100 hot/cold score), hold SHY (short‑term Treasuries).
2) Else if bonds beat cash (BND>BIL, 60d), put ~2/3 into 3 oversold leveraged funds (from TECL tech, SOXL semis, FAS financials, TQQQ Nasdaq, UPRO S&P, TMF long Treasuries); rest stays cash‑like.
3) Else if long Treasuries are weak (TLT<BIL, 20d), split USDU (US dollar) and a hedge (SQQQ short Nasdaq or TBF short long Treasuries). Otherwise (falling rates), run 55% UPRO/45% TMF—unless SPY dropped >5% in ~10d; then hold BIL (T‑bills) ~1 month.
Out-of-sample, this crash-aware, rates-driven strategy targets ~32% annual returns vs ~22% for the S&P 500, with crash protection and rate-regime switches. Higher upside comes with higher drawdown risk—best suited for risk-tolerant investors.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.47 | 1.28 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 369.91% | 13.7% | 2.19% | 5.01% | 0.83 | |
| 71,187.22% | 72.45% | -2.69% | 19.3% | 1.4 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$7,128,721.82Regulatory Fees
$27,855.30
Total Slippage
$183,353.65
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 30, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, regime switching, risk on/risk off, volatility filter, rates signals, crash protection, tax-friendly (no k-1s)
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares
Stocks
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks