$ v1.1 of Risk On/Risk Off Hedgefundie (No K-1)
Today’s Change (Apr 20, 2026)
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About
A rules-based, rate-aware risk-on/risk-off strategy: hide in short Treasuries during panics, defend when rates rise (USD + hedges), and run a refined HFEA mix (3x S&P 500 + 3x long Treasuries) when rates fall, with extra crash safeguards.
Rules-based switch:
• Panic high (volatility index jumps) → short‑term Treasuries.
• Use bonds vs T‑bills to read rates:
– Bonds leading → risk‑on: rotate among leveraged stock and long‑Treasury funds, buying the most beaten‑down picks (RSI = short‑term “hot/cold” meter).
– Rates rising → risk‑off: hold USD plus a hedge against either stocks or long bonds.
– Long rates falling → run HFEA (≈55% 3x S&P 500, 45% 3x long Treasuries); crash signal → T‑bills.
Out-of-sample edge: ~29.1% annualized return vs ~21.7% for the S&P, with rate-aware risk-on/off shifts and crash guards. Captures upside in falling-rate regimes while tightening risk in panics.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.45 | 1.27 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 383.78% | 13.67% | 6.16% | 5.09% | 0.83 | |
| 61,712.84% | 68.61% | -5.57% | -8.63% | 1.35 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$6,181,283.75Regulatory Fees
$30,750.96
Total Slippage
$203,067.84
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 30, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 10%
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, tactical allocation, trend + mean reversion, leveraged etfs, rates-aware, crash protection, no k-1
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 15 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SOXL
Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TBF
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
Stocks
TECL
Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks