A regime-based tactical allocator that combines short-term mean reversion, momentum, volatility hedging, and a bond-vs-stock gauge to switch between leveraged equity bets, hedges, and cash. It aims to ride trends, capture mean reversions, and reduce losses when bonds outperform or volatility spikes.

- Start with cash-equivalent baseline allocations. - Evaluate multiple signals to decide whether market conditions are favorable for risk-taking or signal a move to safety. - Volatility signal: if volatility measures spike (e.g., via UVXY readings or related triggers), tilt toward cash or volatility hedges; in calmer periods, reduce hedges. - Mean-reversion signal: monitor a short-term 10-day RSI on a leveraged tech proxy (like TQQQ); if readings are extreme, expect a pullback toward normal levels and adjust exposures accordingly. - Momentum signal: check if a price series is above/below a 25-day moving average to gauge trend strength; tilt toward assets with positive momentum and away from weak trend assets. - Bond signal: compare bond versus stock performance using funds like BND, IEF, TLT and cash proxies like BIL; if bonds outperform or if the yield curve appears inverted, tilt toward bonds and cash; otherwise lean toward stocks/equities. - Regime logic: categorize markets into names like Normal market, Early Cycle, Risk On, and Risk Off; allocate to asset groups (e.g., TQQQ for Risk On, UVXY/SH for volatility or hedging, BND/IEF/TLT/BIL for Bond signal) with predefined weights (often high-conviction weights such as 85/100 or 100/100). - Rebalance as signals change; the system uses a broad set of cross-asset checks to avoid staying in a misaligned regime for too long. The result is a dynamic mix of leveraged equity bets, hedges, and safe assets designed to maximize upside in favorable regimes while limiting drawdowns in stress periods.

Regime-aware strategy that dynamically shifts between leveraged equities, hedges, and bonds to ride trends and mean reversions. OOS: ~34% annual return vs ~23% for S&P, with higher upside and proactive risk controls, but potential larger drawdowns in stress.