A daily, rules-based momentum strategy on semiconductors using RSI signals to tilt between cash, a bear semiconductor ETF (SOXS), and a bull semiconductor ETF (SOXL), with an overarching preference for risk-off when market signals suggest weakness.

- The system runs daily. It watches RSI signals on SOXX (semiconductors) and, in some branches, SOXL (bull 3x) and SOXS (bear 3x). - If SOXX's long-term RSI (roughly 200-day lookback) is above 65, the model considers a risk-off stance and looks to move into cash (BIL) or into the bear semiconductor ETF (SOXS). - Inside that branch, additional checks on SOXL’s momentum (RSI with a short lookback, e.g., 4 days, and a threshold like 57) can push the allocation toward SOXL if conditions are favorable, otherwise keeping cash and/or bear exposure. - In another nested branch, a weak short-term momentum on SOXX (RSI below 42 over a very short window) can trigger a different path that uses cash (80%) with a smaller allocation to SOXS (20%), i.e., a defensive tilt. - The overall target is to benefit from market downturn signals (especially when SPY shows weakness) by hedging with SOXS or keeping mostly cash, while allowing occasional tilt to SOXL if the short-term momentum looks constructive. - The total position weights are described as a fixed share of the portfolio (e.g., 50/100), with the allocations adjusted daily according to the rules. - Because SOXL and SOXS are 3x levered ETFs, the strategy is high-risk and designed for short horizons and rapid rebalances rather than buy-and-hold.

Out-of-sample edge: ~47% annualized return vs SPY ~23%, driven by semiconductor momentum and cash/bear hedges. Higher upside, but larger drawdowns (up to ~50%). Best for risk-tolerant, active investors seeking growth.