Retail with Recession Condition (Current Price)
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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About
A daily, rule-based equity strategy focused on U.S. retailers. It uses Walmart price vs SPY’s 200-day average to choose between a Walmart-centric stance or a fixed Walmart/Target/Costco allocation.
- It looks at three U.S. retailers: Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Costco (COST).
- It checks whether Walmart’s current price is lower than the SPY ETF’s 200-day moving average (a simple measure of the market’s longer-term trend).
- If Walmart is below that long-term trend, the portfolio concentrates on Walmart (the true branch).
- If Walmart is not below that trend, it follows a fixed mix: Walmart 61.64%, Target 3.45%, Costco 34.91%.
- Rebalancing happens daily to maintain the rule.
- SPY is a broad market proxy; the 200-day average smooths out daily fluctuations to indicate overall market direction.
- The goal is to combine a recession-style signal with retail exposures, though it is a simple and focused approach.
Low-beta, rule-based U.S. retailers offer diversification with solid out-of-sample risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe ~0.85; Calmar ~1.87). It complements the S&P 500 by reducing portfolio volatility and adding disciplined retailer exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.67 | 0.3 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,475.01% | 10.58% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.63 | |
| 9,430.73% | 15.15% | -2.32% | 11.25% | 0.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$953,073.28Regulatory Fees
$488.37
Total Slippage
$2,464.66
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, retail stocks, rule-based strategy, signal-driven allocation, daily rebalance
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TGT
Target Corporation
Stocks
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
Stocks