Retail with Recession Condition (Current Price)
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
Own big U.S. retailers, but switch to a Walmart-only position when the market weakens (SPY below its 200‑day average). Checks this daily and rebalances to the target mix accordingly.
Each day it checks the broad U.S. market using SPY (the main S&P 500 fund). If SPY’s price is below its average over the last ~200 trading days, it treats that as a downturn and holds only Walmart (WMT). Otherwise it holds: 61.64% WMT, 34.91% Costco (COST), 3.45% Target (TGT). It rebalances daily.
Why these? Walmart and Costco sell a lot of everyday essentials, which tend to be steadier in tough times. Target sells more discretionary goods, so it’s kept small.
Regime-aware, defensive retail strategy: 100% Walmart in downturns; otherwise a Walmart/COST/TGT mix. Out-of-sample edge: Calmar ~1.87 and beta ~0.10, offering positive risk-adjusted returns with steadier exposure than the S&P 500 in volatile markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.67 | 0.3 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,475.01% | 10.58% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.63 | |
| 9,430.73% | 15.15% | -2.32% | 11.25% | 0.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$953,073.28Regulatory Fees
$488.37
Total Slippage
$2,464.66
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, us large-cap, retail, consumer staples tilt, trend filter, 200-day moving average, defensive
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TGT
Target Corporation
Stocks
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
Stocks