Retail with Recession Condition (Current Price)
Today’s Change (Mar 1, 2026)
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About
A daily retail strategy: when the market trends down, own only Walmart; otherwise hold a fixed blend of Walmart, Costco, and a small slice of Target, using the S&P 500’s 200‑day average as the on/off switch.
Each day, it checks if SPY (a fund tracking the U.S. stock market) is below its 200‑day moving average (the average closing price over ~10 months). If yes, it holds only Walmart. If not, it holds: Walmart 61.64%, Costco 34.91%, Target 3.45%. It rebalances daily.
Out-of-sample: Trend-filtered retail strategy with a defensive tilt: very low beta (~0.11) and a Calmar ~1.87, targeting ~13.4% annualized in up markets while offering diversification versus the S&P 500 through staple-focused exposure.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.68 | 0.3 | 0.54 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,533.36% | 10.67% | -1.37% | 0.68% | 0.63 | |
| 9,603.98% | 15.24% | 7.72% | 14.71% | 0.72 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$970,397.53Regulatory Fees
$487.71
Total Slippage
$2,461.16
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Equities, retail, consumer staples, consumer discretionary (small), trend filter, tactical allocation, us large-cap
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TGT
Target Corporation
Stocks
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
Stocks