Retail with Recession Condition (Current Price)
Today’s Change (Feb 8, 2026)
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About
Rules-based retail stock mix with a market-downturn trigger: go 100% Walmart when SPY falls below its 200‑day average; otherwise hold mostly Walmart and Costco with a small slice of Target. Rebalanced daily.
Each day it checks the S&P 500 (SPY): is today’s price below its 200‑day average (the average closing price over ~9 months)?
- If yes (market weakness), hold 100% Walmart (WMT).
- Otherwise, hold WMT 61.64%, Costco (COST) 34.91%, Target (TGT) 3.45%.
Rebalanced daily.
Rules-based retail strategy: in downturns, rotate to 100% Walmart; otherwise hold ~62% Walmart, ~35% Costco, ~3.5% Target. Out-of-sample: 13.4% annualized return, beta ~0.10, Calmar 1.87. A disciplined, liquid diversification versus the S&P 500.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.09 | 0.68 | 0.3 | 0.55 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,551.13% | 10.72% | -0.17% | 3.34% | 0.64 | |
| 9,719% | 15.31% | 13.97% | 21.93% | 0.73 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$981,900.49Regulatory Fees
$486.41
Total Slippage
$2,453.37
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
May 3, 2025
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Us equities, retail, trend filter, defensive tilt, long-only, rules-based, sector-concentrated
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 4 assets in total
Ticker
Type
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TGT
Target Corporation
Stocks
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
Stocks