$ Regime Switching - Brian's RSI
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A rules‑driven switcher: hide in T‑Bills during volatility spikes, use SPY’s 200‑day trend to call bull vs bear, then use an “overbought/oversold” gauge (RSI) to buy dips, add a VIX hedge when too hot, or flip to inverse funds or Treasuries in downtrends.
1) Panic check: if the “fear gauge” (UVXY) is very hot (RSI>70), go to T‑Bills (BIL). RSI is a short‑term thermometer: low=washed‑out, high=overheated.
2) Trend test: if SPY is above its 200‑day average → Bull; else → Bear.
• Bull: if SPY/QQQ look overheated, buy a VIX hedge (VIXM). Otherwise buy the most “oversold” of SPY, QQQ, or their 2x versions (SSO/QLD), or short‑term Treasuries (SHY).
• Bear: try to buy sharp bounces (TQQQ). If not, rotate to inverse funds (SQQQ/SPXU) or Treasuries (BSV/TLT).
Out-of-sample, this strategy aims for higher upside (~33.8% annual vs the S&P 500 ~21.7%) using regime switching and volatility hedges. Expect larger drawdowns (~42% vs ~19%), but with potentially stronger compounding in volatile markets.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 0.78 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 605.13% | 14.55% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.89 | |
| 269,587.49% | 73.23% | -3.49% | -3.58% | 1.71 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$26,968,748.88Regulatory Fees
$115,487.98
Total Slippage
$810,190.72
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 30, 2022
Trading Setting
Threshold 9%
Type
Stocks
Category
Regime switching,tactical allocation,momentum & mean reversion,leveraged/inverse etfs,volatility hedge,u.s. equities & treasuries
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 14 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF
Stocks
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
SSO
ProShares Ultra S&P500
Stocks