A simple daily two-asset rule between GLD (gold) and BIL (short-term cash). If GLD isn’t overbought (RSI < 65), pick the better performer between GLD and BIL over the recent momentum window and allocate about 75% to that asset. If GLD looks overbought (RSI ≥ 65), favor BIL. Rebalance every day. It’s a momentum-leaning gold-vs-cash strategy with a daily switch rule and a built-in bias to hold the leading asset.

Here’s the layman version of how it works: - You’re choosing between two things to own each day: GLD (gold) or BIL (very short-term cash-like Treasuries). - RSI is a simple gauge of whether an asset has been getting too hot or too weak recently. If GLD’s RSI is below 65, GLD isn’t considered overbought yet, so the strategy will look at both GLD and BIL and pick the one that has performed better recently (momentum) over a short window (about 20 days). The top performer gets most of the allocation (about 75%). - If GLD’s RSI is 65 or higher, the system shifts toward BIL, i.e., a cash-like position, rather than chasing gold when it looks stretched. - The decision uses “cumulative return” (a simple measure of how much an asset has gained over the lookback window) to rank GLD vs BIL, with short-term lookbacks (around 7–20 days) to decide which asset is leading. - It rebalances every trading day, so you may move between GLD and BIL frequently. - The result is a single-asset exposure at any time, biased toward the asset that (a) isn’t overbought and (b) has shown stronger momentum recently. Notes for context: - GLD = SPDR Gold Shares (gold exposure). - BIL = SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (very short-term cash exposure). - This is not a traditional stock-picking strategy; it’s a two-asset tactical rule aimed at capturing gold upside while preserving capital when gold looks overbought. - Because the approach relies on daily switching, trading costs and taxes could have a meaningful impact in real life.

Out-of-sample, the momentum gold-vs-cash rule beats the S&P on risk-adjusted grounds: Sharpe 1.18 vs 0.96, Calmar 1.78, max drawdown 6.1% vs 18.8%, beta ~0.08. Slightly lower raw return but far smoother, lower risk, and resilient upside.