A daily, rule-based risk-on/risk-off strategy that rotates between leveraged equities (TQQQ), volatility hedges (UVXY), and bonds (SHY, BND, TMF, BIL) using short-lookback momentum and drawdown checks. It keeps a small asset set and aims for equal-cash weighting across chosen assets, with dynamic shifts driven by bond performance and stock drawdowns to manage risk.

- It runs every trading day and decides where to put capital among a small set of ETFs. - It first checks a very short-term momentum signal on TQQQ (a 10‑day lookback). If that momentum is extremely strong (roughly an RSI-like gauge above a high threshold, here shown as > 79), the model considers UVXY as an asset, acting as a volatility hedge. - If the strong-momentum condition on TQQQ is not met, the strategy follows two broad modes: Risk Off (toward bonds) or Risk On (toward stocks). - The Risk Off path relies on bond-related signals: 60-day cumulative return for BND versus a short-term bond proxy (BIL) and a stock drawdown comparison for SPY (20-day drawdown vs 180-day drawdown). If bonds have outperformed a short-term proxy and SPY hasn’t suffered a deep, long drawdown, the model tilts toward safer assets like SHY (short Treasury bonds). - The Risk On path tilts toward equity exposure, notably including TQQQ (a 3x Nasdaq ETF). There are additional conditional branches that can bring in long Treasuries (TMF) or adjust the mix if recent market behavior suggests a stronger safety tilt. - Weights are applied with an equal-weight approach to the chosen assets (wt-cash-equal), aiming for diversification rather than concentration. - The overall intent is a daily rebalanced, low-count, regime-based allocation that tries to ride uptrends with risk-on exposure while stepping into safer bonds when risk signals worsen. Leveraged ETFs amplify outcomes, so users should understand the higher risk and potential for sharp reversals. - The framework references common ETFs: TQQQ (3x Nasdaq growth), UVXY (volatility exposure), SPY (large-cap equity), SHY (short-term bonds), BND (broad bond market), BIL (short-termTreasury bills), TMF (3x long Treasuries). The exact numeric thresholds (e.g., RSI > 79, 60d/180d windows) are central to every decision and would need to be validated in live/ historical tests before live use.

Out-of-sample, the strategy underperforms the S&P 500 on risk-adjusted returns (Sharpe 0.32 vs 0.91) and suffers larger drawdowns (53.8% vs 18.8%). Use as a diversification/tactical sleeve alongside core equity exposure, not a replacement.