* Daily: Risk On - TQQQ/Risk Off - Bonds (60d CR BND > BIL + SPY 20d DD < 180d DD) 10/4/2011
Today’s Change (Mar 18, 2026)
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About
A daily risk-on/risk-off switch. When bonds trend and stock losses look contained, hold TQQQ (3x Nasdaq). If stress rises, rotate to Treasuries (TMF/SHY) or T‑Bills (BIL). If tech looks overheated (high RSI), briefly hold UVXY (volatility).
Daily checks:
- If TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) is very hot (RSI>79; RSI ≈ strength of recent gains), buy UVXY (volatility).
- Else if SH (inverse S&P 500) is up >5% in 10d, hold SHY (1–3yr Treasuries).
- Else if BND > GSY over 60d: if SPY’s 20d drawdown < 6‑mo drawdown, buy TQQQ; else buy TMF (3x long Treasuries).
- Else hold BIL (T‑Bills).
Out-of-sample: modest risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ~0.32) but much larger drawdowns (~53.8%) and lower annualized return (~4.4%) than SPY. Designed as crisis hedging/diversification via bonds and volatility, not a SPY replacement.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | 1.13 | 0.18 | 0.43 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 669.43% | 15.2% | -1.77% | 0.2% | 0.93 | |
| 1,769,584.64% | 97.08% | 1.64% | 6.08% | 1.75 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$176,968,464.17Regulatory Fees
$400,840.63
Total Slippage
$2,868,499.72
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 13, 2024
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Risk-on/risk-off, momentum, drawdown filter, leveraged etfs, bonds, treasuries, volatility hedge, tactical asset allocation
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 9 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
GSY
Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF
Stocks
SH
ProShares Short S&P500
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Stocks
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
Stocks