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🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here

About

A daily, 100% capital, equal-weight tactically allocated portfolio that uses a QQQ momentum rule to pick between two 3x-levered long bets (TQQQ/UPRO) or an inverse levered bet (SQQQ), plus an SHY-driven cash-like filter via BIL for a cash-like exposure.
NutHow it works
- Every day, the portfolio rebalances to 100% of capital across the assets that the rules select. - Signal 1 (QQQ momentum): If QQQ’s price change today is less than 3%, invest equally in two levered ETFs that go up when the market goes up (TQQQ for Nasdaq tech and UPRO for large-cap). If QQQ’s price change is 3% or more, instead hold the inverse, i.e., SQQQ. - Signal 2 (SHY momentum): If SHY’s 5-day average return is positive, include BIL (short-term Treasuries) as a cash-like holding. - The actual mix is the equal-weight of all assets currently selected by these rules; the weights are normalized to sum to 100%. - The aim is to ride short-term momentum with leverage on equity exposure while optionally adding a cash-like buffer when shorter-term Treasuries show positive momentum. - Risk note: Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses and tend to be volatile; daily rebalancing can cause erosion in sideways markets.
CheckmarkValue prop
Out-of-sample momentum strategy with daily 100% rebalanced levered bets on QQQ/UPRO (SQQQ when needed) and a SHY cash buffer. Potential upside ~59% annualized vs ~22% for the S&P, with Calmar ~1.08 but larger drawdowns (~55%).

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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, momentum-based tactical allocation, short-term treasuries, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks
SHY
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Stocks
SQQQ
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
Stocks
TQQQ
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
Stocks
UPRO
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500
Stocks

FAQ

A Composer symphony is an automated trading strategy that executes trades based on parameters of your choice. Some symphonies are similar to holding one ETF in normal conditions and rotating to a different ETF when market conditions shift, for example a 5% drop in the S&P 500, while others use complex rules with dozens of triggers. However, complex doesn’t always mean better. A simple, well-structured symphony can be just as effective as an intricate one. Learn more about how symphonies work here.

"🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod" is currently performing the same as yesterday today. Performance updates in real time during market hours.

"🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod" is currently allocated toBIL. Holdings automatically adjust as market conditions change based on the strategy's rules.

Year-to-date, "🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod" has returned 51.21%. You can adjust the performance chart above to view returns across different time horizons.

The maximum drawdown for "🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod" is 54.96%. The maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline. It's an important metric to evaluate risk and the strategy's behavior during market stress.

To invest in "🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod", simply click the Invest button on this page. You'll need to open an account with Composer if you don't have one yet, then you can start investing. Composer will automatically execute the trades for you based on the strategy's rules. Composer also supports trading individual stocks, ETFs, and options.