🧪 BlackSwan Portfolio | Cashen Mod
Today’s Change (Mar 17, 2026)
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A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
A daily, 100% capital, equal-weight tactically allocated portfolio that uses a QQQ momentum rule to pick between two 3x-levered long bets (TQQQ/UPRO) or an inverse levered bet (SQQQ), plus an SHY-driven cash-like filter via BIL for a cash-like exposure.
- Every day, the portfolio rebalances to 100% of capital across the assets that the rules select.
- Signal 1 (QQQ momentum): If QQQ’s price change today is less than 3%, invest equally in two levered ETFs that go up when the market goes up (TQQQ for Nasdaq tech and UPRO for large-cap). If QQQ’s price change is 3% or more, instead hold the inverse, i.e., SQQQ.
- Signal 2 (SHY momentum): If SHY’s 5-day average return is positive, include BIL (short-term Treasuries) as a cash-like holding.
- The actual mix is the equal-weight of all assets currently selected by these rules; the weights are normalized to sum to 100%.
- The aim is to ride short-term momentum with leverage on equity exposure while optionally adding a cash-like buffer when shorter-term Treasuries show positive momentum.
- Risk note: Leveraged ETFs magnify both gains and losses and tend to be volatile; daily rebalancing can cause erosion in sideways markets.
Out-of-sample momentum strategy with daily 100% rebalanced levered bets on QQQ/UPRO (SQQQ when needed) and a SHY cash buffer. Potential upside ~59% annualized vs ~22% for the S&P, with Calmar ~1.08 but larger drawdowns (~55%).
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Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Apr 3, 2023
Trading Setting
Daily
Type
Stocks
Category
Leveraged etfs, momentum-based tactical allocation, short-term treasuries, daily rebalancing
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 6 assets in total