-bk-I 8/13 200d LETF MA Risk On/Off inv
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
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About
Rule-based, risk-on/risk-off rotation. Rides clear uptrends with 3x stock ETFs; in weak markets shifts to cash-like T‑bills, gold, US dollar, inverse stock/bond funds, and Treasuries. Uses trend and short-term “hot/cold” signals to decide.
It first asks: are big indexes (S&P 500=SPY, Nasdaq 100=QQQ) above their long‑term average (200‑day)? If yes, it goes “risk‑on,” using 3x stock funds (TQQQ=Nasdaq, UPRO=S&P, SOXL=chips, FAS=banks). If no, it cuts risk, moving to T‑bills (BIL/SHY), gold (GLD), a strong USD (USDU), or inverse funds (PSQ/QID/SQQQ; TBT/TMV). A short‑term “hot/cold” gauge (RSI) buys dips or trims when overheated. Bonds flip long (TMF/UBT) when rates fall and short (TBT/TMV) when they rise.
Outperforms the S&P on risk-adjusted growth: out-of-sample Sharpe ~1.62, annualized return ~38.35%, Calmar ~1.92, beta ~0.83, and ~20% max drawdown, achieved through disciplined trend-based, multi-asset rotations and hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.63 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 159.86% | 15.39% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.82 | |
| 7,815.44% | 92.58% | 0.93% | -6.63% | 2.65 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$791,543.57Regulatory Fees
$3,447.29
Total Slippage
$21,955.32
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Oct 31, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 2%
Type
Stocks
Category
Tactical, multi-asset, trend-following, leveraged etfs, sector rotation, bond rotation, hedged
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 96 assets in total
Ticker
Type
AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Stocks
ANGL
VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF
Stocks
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
BKLN
Invesco Senior Loan ETF
Stocks
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market
Stocks
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF
Stocks
BTAL
AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund
Stocks
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
Stocks
DBMF
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks