-bk-I 8/13 200d LETF MA Risk On/Off | 09/13/23 mod
Today’s Change (Mar 5, 2026)
—
A symphony is an automated trading strategy — Learn more about symphonies here
About
Rules‑based, multi‑sleeve trend strategy. 30% QQQ, 30% SPY, 10% each XLF/SMH/XLU/TLT. Uses a 200‑day “risk on/off” switch, presses uptrends with 2–3x ETFs, and shifts to T‑bills, gold, dollar, oil, staples/healthcare, volatility, or inverse hedges when conditions weaken.
Portfolio split: 30% Nasdaq (QQQ), 30% S&P 500 (SPY), 10% each Financials (XLF), Semis (SMH), Utilities (XLU), long Treasuries (TLT). Each slice is risk‑on when price > its 200‑day average, else risk‑off.
Risk‑on: ride trends with 2–3x ETFs; Risk‑off: T‑bills/SHY or inverse hedges. RSI (0–100 speedometer): <~30 = washed out (buy dips), >~80 = stretched (hedge). Also rotates to gold (GLD), oil/energy (DBO/XLE), strong USD (UUP/USDU), staples/healthcare (XLP/XLV), or volatility (VIXY). Leverage is cut after big Nasdaq drops.
Out-of-sample, this strategy delivers superior risk-adjusted gains vs the S&P: annualized return ~47% vs ~22%, Sharpe ~1.58 vs ~1.36, Calmar ~2.0. Diversified risk-on/off sleeves aim for big uptrends with downside hedges.
1M
3M
6M
YTD
1Y
3Y
Max
Performance
Compared to selected benchmarks
| Alpha | Beta | R2 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.16 | 0.4 |
Performance Metrics
| Cumulative Return | Annualized Return | Trailing 1M Return | Trailing 3M Return | Sharpe Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.03% | 12.22% | -0.15% | 0.4% | 0.76 | |
| 1,568.82% | 81.86% | 8.25% | 3.84% | 2.39 |
Initial Investment
$10,000.00
Final Value
$166,882.07Regulatory Fees
$565.23
Total Slippage
$3,489.48
Invest in this strategy
OOS Start Date
Sep 13, 2023
Trading Setting
Threshold 1%
Type
Stocks
Category
Trend-following, risk-on/risk-off, leveraged & inverse etfs, sector rotation, tactical allocation, volatility hedging
Tickers in this symphonyThis symphony trades 31 assets in total
Ticker
Type
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
Stocks
DBO
Invesco DB Oil Fund
Stocks
DIA
State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Stocks
FAS
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares
Stocks
FAZ
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares
Stocks
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
Stocks
PSQ
ProShares Short QQQ
Stocks
QID
ProShares UltraShort QQQ
Stocks
QLD
ProShares Ultra QQQ
Stocks
QQQ
Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1
Stocks